From the Ledge

As some of my blog readers know, this is a huge weekend for me.  My Superbowl, the Oscars, is going to be on Sunday, so I’ve been delirious with anticipation this whole week for one of the most competitive Academy Awards in years.  Before I enter my hermetically-sealed viewing room, not to re-emerge until early Monday morning, I’d like to share with you my predictions for this year’s Oscar categories, and yes, for the first time in my prognosticating years, for all 24 of them.   As a caveat, although I have seen 98% of the nominated films, I’ve seen only a couple of the foreign language films nominated (The Class and Revanche), and none of the documentary, animated, and short film nominees, so I’ll be going with what my tea leaves tell me (actually I’m basing them on predictions of various Oscar bloggers, pundits, and avid watchers).  Also, just note that my predictions may not necessarily tally with my own personal preferences.  Anyone who’s been obsessed with all things Oscar knows that merit is probably one of the least important factors when Academy voters pick their winners.  Imagine that ha?

Best Supporting Actress

All the buzz is focused on Penelope Cruz, recipient of most of the critics’ awards and the BAFTA for her fierce, train-stopping performance as the half-crazy artist Maria Elena in Vicky Christina Barcelona. I am a huge Penelope fan, but despite some welcome moments of subtlety, she was chewing up so much scenery throughout the movie I thought she was going to also swallow ScarJo’s (that’s Scarlet Johansson to you) collarbone whole! I think the unexpected winner here will be Viola Davis, whose performance lasted all of 12 minutes but gave Doubt it’s intense, unforgettable core.  This category has gone to many acclaimed stage actresses (think Mercedes Ruehl and Marcia Gay Harden), so I’m thinking Tony award winner Davis could just pull this off!

Predicted winner:  Viola Davis, Doubt

Best Supporting Actor

I’m going to say something controversial here but I don’t think Heath Ledger’s brilliant, iconic performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight (my own personal pick among the nominees) will garner a posthumous Oscar (and Roger Ebert said “bet the house” on Heath’s winning, but I’m not sure anyone would want to get real estate advice from La Ebert).  With the fact that there’s only been one posthumous acting win in the Oscar’s 81 year history ever (Peter Finch as Best Actor in Network; even James Dean, nominated twice after his death, didn’t get an Oscar), it seems like Academy voters want to see their winners alive and clutching their Oscar statuettes for dear life in numerous photo opps.  I don’t think Philip Seymour Hoffman is going to get a second Oscar any time soon and Robert Downey Jr.’s nomination (In a comedy film! Wearing blackface!) was a freak of nature. I have a personal soft spot for Michael Shannon, whom I’ve known through my Chicago theater activities, but his Revolutionary Road performance, although showstopping, is really not particularly nuanced. So that leaves us with Josh Brolin, who has had a terrific two years and who successfully made Dan White in Milk an intriguing character that makes you re-evaluate your preconceptions.

Predicted winner:  Josh Brolin, Milk

Best Actress

This year’s exciting Best Actress race is the equivalent of a WWE smackdown for me – on one side, Greatest Actress Alive Meryl Streep, with a world record 15 nominations and 2 wins, giving a monumental performance as a suspicious nun in Doubt, and on the other side, Heiress to the Greatest Actress Alive, Kate Winslet, with 6 nominations and no wins, delivering an Oscar-bait performance as a concentration camp guard in The Reader.  Seems like all indicators are pointing to La Winslet getting her first of many Oscars this year (It’s a Holocaust movie!  She talks with an accent!  She has a meltdown in the courtroom!  She is naked half the time!  She ages and dies unglamorously!) but never count The Streep out.  People seem to think she’s due a third Oscar after 26 years of putting on the loser’s frozen-faced smile, and I think this category is going to be very, very close.

Predicted winner:  Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Actor

This is the hardest Best Actor category I have attempted to predict in close to a decade of Oscar prognosticating since it could go either way between two flawless, legendary performances: Sean Penn’s luminous, immersive turn as gay rights activist Harvey Milk in Milk and Mickey Rourke’s heartbreaking portrayal of a washed-up wrestler looking for second chances in The Wrestler. Since the performances are both deserving of Oscars (although I think Penn‘s is slightly more complex), I think the final vote will come down to those pesky “other” factors.  Mickey has the sentimental backstory, broken-down, unemployable actor back in the game by giving the performance of his life, which appeals to many Oscar voters.  But he has been quite the train-wreck recently in the awards circuit (making out with Evan Rachel Wood who played HIS DAUGHTER in the movie at a SAG Awards after-party? Please).  Penn isn’t warm and fuzzy himself, but he is considered the greatest actor of his generation (which includes Mickey) and if Hilary Swank has TWO Academy Awards, why shouldn’t Sean?  This is another close one.

Predicted winner:  Sean Penn, Milk

Best Director

The competition in the Best Director category is about as exciting as the one among meatheads trying to be Brody Jenner’s Bromance.   Anyone living on this planet who doesn’t think Danny Boyle is going to win for Slumdog Millionaire, raise your hands.  Anyone?  Hello?  Right, I thought so.   I admire Boyle’s clear-cut vision and strong narrative style in this film, as well as his overall endearing good guy-ness in interviews and awards shows, but I have major issues with the movie (more on that later in the Best Picture prediction).  But Danny Boyle winning is as sure a thing as Ryan Seacrest showing up on the Red Carpet.  My own personal pick to win, the brilliant David Fincher, imbued The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with so much ambition and scope, that it was both maddening and riveting at the same time.  Fincher’s work, I feel, is so much more superlative than Boyle’s, successfully creating an old-style Hollywood film which doesn’t surprisingly feel old-fashioned.

Predicted winner:  Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture

Many Oscarwatchers will agree that the Best Picture winner is almost always an indicator of the times.  So in a world where economies are crashing, cross-cultural borders are disappearing, and pessimism reigns supreme, a movie about a poor Indian kid who wins big, both romantically and financially, is the ultimate feel-good, inspiring, earth-moving story of our times.  Is Slumdog Millionaire the Best Picture of the year?  Hell, no!  I personally found it contrived, false, and unrealistic.  But the film speaks to people and I think that’s enough, right now, to bury the competition.

Predicted winner:  Slumdog Millionaire

Other Categories

Adapted Screenplay:  Slumdog Millionaire

Original Screenplay:  Milk

Cinematography:  Slumdog Millionaire

Film Editing:  Slumdog Millionaire

Art Direction:  The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Costume Design:  The Duchess

Original Musical Score:  Slumdog Millionaire

Original Song:  “Jai Yo” from Slumdog Millionaire

Make-Up:  The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sound Editing:  The Dark Knight

Sound Mixing:  Slumdog Millionaire

Visual Effects:  The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Foreign Language Film:  The Class (France)

Animated Feature:  Wall-E

Documentary Feature:  Man on Wire

Documentary Short:  The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306

Animated Short:  Presto

Live Action Short:  Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Tags: Academy Awards