Chezzie, I cannot abide The Hangover getting nominated, no matter how big of a box-office bonanza it was! If the Coen brothers don’t rally support for their movie or Woody Harrelson falls by the wayside, I’ll let District 9 and Star Trek in over A Serious Man and The Messenger. Yes, I’d rather let Star Trek in over The Hangover.

DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Clint Eastwood (Invictus), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Now that there are ten picture contenders, I guess that means the phenomenon of the “picture orphan” has been expanded five-fold. There goes one sure thing about predicting who’ll lose in the director category!

ACTOR: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

You forgot about Morgan Freeman. Venerated. Playing a respected real-life person. Directed by Clint Eastwood. Need I say more?

We line up on the actress category.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Sorry, Chezzie, I love your “no guts, no glory” philosophy, but I think the Academy will see The Hurt Locker as something of a one-man show. That means Matt and his smooth chest and Christopher Plummer and his smooth Panama hat will get in.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’nique (Precious), Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Samantha Morton (The Messenger)

Chezzie, Chezzie. Methinks you are so invested in a Mo’nique victory that you’re practically stacking the odds in her favor. Two movies splitting the vote among their supporting actresses? I’ll grant that Diane Kruger may sneak in, but I think the Academy will spread the love.