From the Ledge

So everyone who has been reading From the Ledge for the past couple of years know that my usual blogging diet of theater, opera, art, world cinema and other more erudite artistic pursuits is supplanted by Oscar frenzy come February and March of the year.  Albee and O’Neill and Puccini and Wong Kar-wai are put out to temporary pasture while I obsess about…uhmmm, Sandra Bullock and Anne Hathaway, and everyone in between.  Speaking of Anne Hathaway, she will be bright up and early in Los Angeles tomorrow morning, February 2^nd, to announce the nominations for the 82^nd Annual Academy Awards (together with Academy President Tom Sherak) at 5:35 am Pacific time, so I think it’s apropros to unveil in today’s post my third annual fearless Oscar nominations predictions.  Although there are some pretty sure things (Mo’Nique should have started looking at couture swatches weeks ago), I think there’ll be some surprises, and hopefully some genuine jawdroppers, in tomorrow’s nominations announcement.

 Best Picture

(500) Days of Summer

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hangover

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious:  Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Up In the Air

Next to the existence of John Edwards’ alleged “personal video” with ex-mistress Rielle Hunter, the Academy’s decision to expand the Best Picture nominees from five to ten is probably the wackiest piece of news I’ve heard in the past twelve months.  Where are they going to scrounge ten films to nominate when there were past years that the Academy could barely find even five worthy films to honor?  I’m planning to cleanse my system of anything liquid for the next twelve hours to avoid puking up brown matter in case critically-derided box-office hits such as The Hangover and The Blind Side are called tomorrow (which are very likely).  I’m also hoping though that the welcome result of this crazy, possibly medication-induced decision is that films with passionate followers such as District 9 and (500) Days of Summer, my two “No Guts, No Glory” picks are given the recognition they deserve.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Lee Daniels, Precious

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Jason Reitman, Up In the Air

I think this is a pretty solid line-up (it’s the nominees list of the Directors’ Guild of America Award, which Bigelow won over the weekend), but there is always some out-of-left-field nominee that can crop up in this category.  I am not ready to make a “No Guts, No Glory” prediction since these directors all have been acclaimed and buzzed-about throughout the year for their work and their back stories, but one of them can be supplanted by the great Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon or Neill Blomkamp for the unexpected summer critical and commercial hit District 9.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up In the Air

Matt Damon, The Informant!

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Bridges, Clooney, Firth, and Renner have all been nominated by various award-giving bodies.  Matt Damon had two noteworthy performances in 2009.  His South African soccer player in Invictus, all smooth barechest, muscular legs, sexy Afrikaans accent, and blazing blonde hair, has been getting the awards attention in the Supporting Actor category, but the Academy LOVES physical transformations as the primary indicator of an actor’s craft (just ask Charlize Theron, Felicity Huffman, Robert de Niro, etc.) so I think it’s his other performance, as the pudgy, middle-aged, mustachioed, beige slacks-wearing (horrors!) corporate drone in The Informant! that will bring Damon his second acting nomination after his career-making one in Good Will Hunting twelve years ago.  It’s my “No Guts, No Glory” pick for this category.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

I don’t think there will be any surprises in this category, other than if Sandra Bullock (SaBu to us mere mortals), in all her blonde highlights, high-heeled, Texan twang, Julia-Roberts-as-Erin-Brockovich-channeling glory, doesn’t get nominated.  This will only happen if Lady Gaga decides to shoeshop with Susan Boyle…which is, like, highly unlikely.

Best Supporting Actor

Brian Geraghty, The Hurt Locker

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Walz, Inglourious Basterds

I actually think the Supporting races are the more wide-open ones this year and will most likely yield the buzzworthy nominations tomorrow morning.  With its recent Directors Guild and Producers Guild Awards victories and its Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination for Best Ensemble, I think there’s widespread respect for The Hurt Locker.  Jeremy Renner is deservedly getting the awards attention for his incredible lead performance but Brian Geraghty and Anthony Mackie as the other two members of the bomb unit turn in memorable performances as well, so my “No Guts, No Glory” picks are the two of them securing slots in this highly-competitive category (and if I have to pick only one, I think the vote will go to Mackie who turned in more restrained work).

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga, Up In the Air

Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air

Diane Krueger, Inglourious Basterds

Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Mo’Nique, Precious

I would argue that Inglourious Basterds is more radical filmmaking than Avatar.  It might not have the technological razzle-dazzle of the latter, but it has the screenwriting, directing, and acting chutzpah to invert our traditional conceptions of war genre films.  I think actors, who make up the majority of Academy membership, will want to reward a film that has juicy roles all around.  Christoph Walz is a shoo-in for Supporting Actor, but I think his two female co-stars, the gloriously scene-stealing Diane Krueger and the more heartfelt Melanie Laurent, will also get their names called tomorrow.  They’re my “No Guts, No Glory” picks for this category.

Let’s see how I do tomorrow morning!  (The announcement is usually carried by the networks’ morning shows, CNN, and E! at 7:35 am central time).

Tags: Academy Awards